This weekend’s caucuses featured the media’s usual fawning over Obama. Buried beneath the headlines about Obama’s greatness, however, was something more concerning — McCain’s inability to lock up the nomination. This past weekend, Kansas and Washington held caucuses, and Louisiana a primary. And to the surprise of pretty much everyone, including McCain, Huckabee cleaned up: he won 60-24 in Kansas, 43-42 in Louisiana, and just barely lost in Washington, 26-24.

These defeats came after an entire week when the media, when they weren’t worshipping Obama, were declaring how McCain had come full circle and was the “presumptive nominee,” and now conservatives were going to fall into line...blah blah blah. The primary results show that this has not yet happened — and might not — before the general election. The McCain camp has been very concerned about the lack of conservative support, but everyone seems to think voters will eventually turn out for him as they did for President Bush, favoring him over the specter of a Democrat in the White House.

McCain is going to win the nomination. That much is clear. But Huckabee, despite being a seriously flawed candidate, despite having no money and no endorsements, is still winning states, and that has to be worrisome for the McCain campaign. Although McCain will win without substantial conservative support, the absence of a Republican base might be more damaging than the pundits seem to think.

Democrats learned in 2004 that hatred for President Bush could not bring an election victory. John Kerry was even less inspiring and credible than Bush, and people were not moved to vote for him. Despite all the money poured into the major swing states, the Democrats could not turn a single state blue. For all the talk of “turning out to vote against candidate X,” voters want someone to vote for, rather than against. For certain independents and moderate Republicans, McCain is that man. For conservatives, he isn’t.

It’s interesting to imagine what would happen if there was a credible conservative in the field, one without the debilitating flaws of Romney, Thompson or Huckabee. If someone with real stature and fewer apparent defects — a Jeb Bush, for example, without his last name, of course — McCain might never have had a chance. But because the conservatives split themselves three ways (with Huckabee mainly taking votes away from Romney), McCain was able to sneak through. In the Tsunami Tuesday of Feb. 5, McCain did not win a plurality of self-described “conservative” voters in any of the states, even in the ones he won. He dominated “moderates” and “independents.”

So now Republicans are stuck with their man McCain. They don”t seem too excited with him, just relieved that the ridiculous Republican nominating process is coming to a close. His fundraising has been anemic, with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama clearly outshining him.

Now, McCain’s general election chances hinges on turnout. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, he will have to fight for independents and moderates. McCain will have to boost conservative turnout to compensate, which seems doubtful without a concerted effort from conservative allies.

I can imagine a “Moderates Anonymous” meeting with the likes of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, going around, talking about their problems with conservatives.