Dear Republican presidential nominee, whoever you may be:

First off, I have to say I’m sorry for you. You managed to triumph, and only barely, over the weakest Republican field in a half-century. Mike Huckabee has won a state! Mike Huckabee! (This boggles my mind.) You probably have fundraising problems. The base is miserable and won’t turn out for you. The independents have deserted you en masse. Each of the top two Democratic candidates has raised tens of millions more than you have. Chances are, your party will lose another four seats in the Senate, on top of the six lost in 2006. There’s no chance of re-taking the House. For all intents and purposes, you’re screwed.

But here’s how you can win. There’s still a small chance that you can eke out a victory. You have to make the most of your opportunity, however, as soon as possible.

Luckily, it is unlikely that any state in the South will desert you, besides perhaps Virginia. Because you control the South and the Democrats will sweep the Northeast, the Midwest and the West will become the battlegrounds. Traditionally, Republicans have done well there, especially during the Reagan era. But you also have to be realistic. Contest states like Michigan, Colorado and Oregon rather than wasting time in the insanely expensive California market. (Although if you can swing California, then you will almost surely win. Without California’s 54 electoral votes, the Democrats need an additional four to five states, something that is essentially impossible.)

Even more important than geographical strategy is your message. You’re going to have to be careful because sounding like a Republican hack will not go over well with independents. You need to craft a message that is conservative rather than Republican. Talk about business and management of the economy. Say the Democrats can’t be trusted as recession looms. As American incomes continue to stagnate, discuss how the Democrats will want to take more of the collective pot, a pot which is not growing any larger. Cast the Republicans, and especially yourself, as the only competent managers of government and spending. Distance yourself from George W. Bush’s record of managerial incompetence and massive deficit.

The social conservatism bit seems to have already hit its high point and is on the decline, so don’t let it take over your campaign. Take a lesson from Rick Santorum, dean of the social conservative homophobes, who lost by 20 points in his 2006 Senate reelection campaign in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Pro-life and anti-gay-marriage is great for motivating evangelicals, but Americans are depressed about the future of the country and care less about waging those great cultural wars. They want to know how we’ll get out of Iraq, how the economy will be fixed and what’s going to happen with the ongoing healthcare problem.

You will also have to distance yourself from President Bush, especially on the Iraq issue. Americans seem to believe that the surge is working, which it is, but they still aren’t willing to stomach another five years. All of the Democrats have plans to leave Iraq, while none of the Republicans do. Not having clear objectives in the Middle East isn’t a good way to win votes, especially when support for the war is still in the 30’s. Open-ended commitments are not salable at this point.

Bill Clinton was successful because he seized Republican issues like welfare, put a happy, optimistic Democratic spin on them and made them palatable to voters in the center. In the 2008 race, the Democrats have an edge on almost every issue. The only way you, Republican nominee, have a chance at capturing the presidency is to take some of the issues, moderate them and then argue that the Democrats can’t be trusted to carry them out effectively. This same tactic was successful in 2000, when Bush declared that he would bring “integrity” to the White House, touting his MBA and managerial experience. That case needs to be made again, with a new face and a separation from the Bush Administration. Appealing to the base, which worked sort of well for Karl Rove and George Bush, will not work this time — voters are depressed, hate everyone in the field and won’t turn out for you anyway.

Oh, and get Mike Bloomberg to be your Vice President. That would be a good move.