Brent Scowcroft, the national security advisor to Presidents Gerald Ford and George Herbert Walker Bush, said last night that China faces continuing challenges both at home and in its relationship with the United States. In a lecture at Encina Hall’s Bechtel Conference Room, the retired lieutenant general outlined the critical issues underlying U.S.-Sino relations.
By characterizing China as the next strategic opponent, American war planners have iced relations, he said.
“Hard as we may try, we cannot by ourselves make China a friend,” he said. “But we certainly can, if we choose by our behavior, make them an enemy.”
Scowcroft said the April visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao likely did more harm than good. By refusing to declare the trip an official state visit, the president offended Chinese leadership. Moreover, the two leaders only engaged in a single hour of dialogue during the trip, he said.
“We made a series of gaffes at the meeting itself that really gave the whole affair a very sour tone,” he said.
While the visit went poorly, Scowcroft said he hoped current tensions were simply “growing pains” on the road to improving relations, and not “the onset of a fatal illness.”
Scowcroft commended China for a change in attitude toward North Korea and Taiwan. The Chinese have agreed to join the U.S. in six-party talks with the Koreans. With Taiwan, he said the situation seems “less and less likely to become a flashpoint.
“While it’s still the most dangerous element, it seems to be relatively under control,” he said. “There’s kind of a deadlock. The Chinese are playing much more skillfully.”
A common interest between the two countries continues to emerge as China becomes a vested shareholder in the global economy, he said.
“As China seeks sources for its growing appetite for raw materials and seeks market for its growing exports, it will increasingly realize that a stable world environment is important to achieve both of those,” he said.
Scowcroft implored American leadership not to wait for a crisis to develop before they discuss issues with the Chinese.
“That dialogue needs nurturing,” he said. “The overall imperative at the moment is that each must take account of the interest of the other as we pursue our goals in the world. And that itself is a big development. We’re not used to consulting each other on areas that don’t deal with the bilateral relationship.”
The respected security strategist — known as a realist in foreign policy parlance — was on the advance team that planned Richard Nixon’s historic week-long visit to China in Feb. 1972. After 20 years without discourse between the two nations, the trip ushered in a new era of dialogue and detente.
“This is a society grappling politically with its success economically,” he said of the world’s fastest-growing economy. “In its search for new materials, especially energy, China seems sometimes to focus on countries the United States considers political rogues.”
While arguing that America must work harder to reach out to China, he acknowledged that military planners should still take the Communist country seriously.
“We do have to be concerned about China, and I don’t think anybody knows here or in Beijing what China is going to look like in 20 years,” he said.
Scowcroft said that America’s occupation in Iraq has undermined its ability to actively engage the Chinese.
“A government can only think about two or three important things at a time,” he said. “Iraq sort of sucks the oxygen out of everything else.”
Scowcroft drew the ire of prominent administration officials earlier this year after he criticized the handling of the war in Iraq. He said that the ongoing insurgency was “a genuinely difficult problem for us.” He added that there has to be a government willing to cooperate with all factions and a military force free of the militias.
On Iran, Scowcroft called Wednesday’s announcement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the U.S. would talk directly with the Iranians “a very shrewd move.
“It was accompanied by pretty tough rhetoric,” he said. “It seems to me that if you’re going to give a gift, it’s better to put a nice wrapper on it than a nasty wrapper. But I think it’s a step forward.”
He said the offer to Iran could help the U.S. shore up Chinese and Russian support for its goals in the Middle East.
“Even if it doesn’t succeed with Iran, what it is likely to do is get the Russians and the Chinese on board,” he said. “Because if we can convince them that we’ve done everything possible and the blame is really on Iran, then the possibility of concerted action increases.”
Scowcroft said he worried about American hypocrisy on business deals, including the recently derailed Dubai Ports and Unocal Oil acquisition deals.
“I think we’re letting hysteria take over in this country,” he said. “It’s not China motivated. It is terrorism motivated. But it is nonetheless self defeating.”

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