American moviegoers may remember 2006 as the year Oscar questioned his sexuality... if they even saw this year’s best picture contenders. “Brokeback Mountain” was the most successful of the nominees, grossing $73 million — not too shabby considering it only cost $14 million to make. Unlike previous years, the Oscar race is notably absent of a big budget vs. small artsy rivalry (think “Aviator” and “Million Dollar Baby,” or “Lord of the Rings” and... well, that didn’t really have much competition), which suggests that the awards show is returning to its roots, celebrating the craft of filmmaking. Unfortunately, this also suggests that a large chunk of potential Oscar-watchers won’t have an interest in who wins and who loses. Most viewers will only turn in for Jon Stewart, considering that more people regularly watch “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” than have seen “Munich.” Is this a bad thing? Nah, but you’d think that they could have thrown “Mr. And Mrs. Smith” in the mix, just to get Brad and Angelina out on the red carpet.

Best Picture Nominees: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Capote,” “Crash,” “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Munich”

Who Should/Will win: “Brokeback Mountain.” This film has it all: a slew of impeccable performances, a masterful presentation of pressing social issues and a heartbreaking storyline. It doesn’t hurt that the expansive shots of Wyoming’s landscape will appeal to many an American sentimentalist voter. “Crash” has the greatest chance of unseating “Brokeback,” not only because of its unique portrayal of race relations, but also because it got everyone talking. Unfortunately for “Crash,” its early release may have hurt it in the Oscar race. Most of the buzz surrounding the film fizzled away over the summer. Though critics seemed to have had high expectations for “Munich,” especially with Spielberg being Oscar’s not-so-secret love child, it only reached “almost as good as Brokeback” status. With Golden Globe winner “Walk the Line” conspicuously absent from the category, “Brokeback” retains the most momentum and hype. Pass us the tissues, and pass them the Oscar.

Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Terrence Howard (“Hustle and Flow”), Heath Ledger (“Brokeback Mountain”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Walk the Line”), David Strathairn (“Good Night, and Good Luck”)

Who Should/Will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”). Take Hoffman out of “Capote” and you have about 12 minutes of film and nothing to write home about, much less to nominate for Best Picture. Hoffman captured the essence of Truman Capote so diligently that he made audience members simultaneously hate and respect him. Though Phoenix may have captured the essence of the Man in Black to a similar degree, Hoffman bears the sole weight of the film in a less formulaic role. Heath Ledger also outperformed anyone’s expectations in “Brokeback,” but this is where Oscar politics come into play: Hoffman’s portfolio dwarfs that of Ledger (“10 Things I Hate About You,” anyone?), and he has simply been around longer. Hoffman as Truman Capote is a once in a lifetime, Oscar-worthy role, and voters will see that Ledger’s got plenty of time for a repeat.

Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), Judi Dench (“Mrs. Henderson Presents”), Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”), Keira Knightley (“Pride and Prejudice”), Charlize Theron (“North Country”)

Who Should Win: Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”). Reese was dazzling as June Carter Cash, who she portrayed with surprising facility and animation. She was June on stage, singing country music with a smile, on tour, resisting Johnny’s forthcomings, and at home, smoothing out Johnny’s rougher edges and essentially saving his life. What I loved most about Reese in this role is that she made the sugar and spice, soft yet tough aspect of Cash’s personality look so easy, and I’m sure that it was anything but. Perhaps I’m just a sucker for country music.

Who Will Win: Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”). Huffman did everything that Oscar voters love women to do to get an Oscar: she made herself ugly (think Charlize Theron in “Monster”) and did a gender role-reversal, portraying a preoperative male-to-female transsexual. Huffman is also on top of her game in her career, and having a weekly reminder of her existence with “Desperate Housewives” doesn’t hurt. Then again, Judi Dench might surprise everyone and sneak through, but only because she’s getting that old. Hell, she deserves an Oscar for getting out of bed in the morning.

Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), George Clooney (“Syriana”), Matt Dillon (“Crash”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brokeback Mountain”), William Hurt (“A History of Violence”)

Who Should/Will win: I have no idea. Oscar voters may feel badly about not nominating Giamatti for “Sideways,” and the Oscar committee is big on repaying overdue debts, but Clooney’s performance in “Syriana” may take the cake because everyone likes him and he had to gain 30 pounds for the role (which I don’t see as too much of a sacrifice). Voters may also choose him to compensate for snubbing him in the best director category. Too bad for Clooney, however, I don’t think anyone actually understood “Syriana” enough to say whether or not he did a good job. This leaves Gyllenhaal, who shouldn’t be in this category anyway since he is on screen almost as much Heath Ledger, who is considered a lead. With so much confusion and underground politics, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Dillon went home with the statue — especially after rebounding from “Beverly Hills, 90210.”

Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”), Amy Adams (“Junebug”), Catherine Keener (“Capote”), Frances McDormand (“North Country”), Michelle Williams (“Brokeback Mountain”)

Who Should Win: Catherine Keener (“Capote”). Keener had a great year career-wise, appealing to mass audiences with “40 Year-Old Virgin” and stretching her acting muscles as Harper Lee in “Capote.” Though Hoffman carried the film, she provided an excellent crutch, and therein lies the beauty of a supporting role. Keener acted as the liaison between the audience and Truman Capote, giving the film a relatable character and somehow illuminating some of the more mystifying aspects of the leading role. She was an excellent match for the role, and complemented Hoffman beautifully, but I think that she will prove easier to ignore than the competition.

Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”). Don’t get me wrong about Weisz — she’s only one notch below Keener in my book, and her performance in the role of a murdered social activist was fantastic, but Keener meshed with Capote so naturally that I have a hard time not giving her an edge. That said, Weisz is probably still going to win, since it’s hard to resist such a moving portrayal of a politically poignant character. She’s also got the most momentum, after having won over the S.A.G. and the Golden Globe committee. As for the other nominees, Michelle Williams’ performance is overshadowed and unnoticeable in comparison to the cowboys’, and I wonder if Anne Hathaway would have been the more appropriate nominee. A win for Adams would certainly be a dark horse, considering that no one has even heard of “Junebug,” and though McDormand is a veteran, her role wasn’t complex enough for an Oscar.

Best Director: George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”), Paul Haggis (“Crash”), Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain”), Bennett Miller (“Capote”), Steven Spielberg (“Munich”)

Who Should/Will Win: Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain”). Lee brought America a controversial film that no one seems to have anything bad to say about. “Brokeback” has become a litmus test for our society — if you didn’t like it, you’re no longer a good person. Even Howard Stern gave it a rave review, saying it was one of the best movies he’s ever seen... not that we should necessarily trust him. But Stern’s opinion aside, Hollywood is unanimous in complimenting Lee’s cinematography, portrayal of homosexuality and adaptation of Proulx’s short story. It doesn’t hurt that Lee is so “Aw, shucks,” about it, considering that modest people in the industry are as rare as celebrity marriages that last a lifetime. Clooney could steal some of Lee’s thunder, since the Oscar committee likes to reward actors who branch away from their original profession, à la Clint Eastwood, but otherwise, even Spielberg doesn’t seem to stand a chance.

The Oscars will air on Sunday at 5 P.M. on ABC. America will be watching with unbridled anticipation for the outfits, Joan and Melissa Rivers (who are too hateable to be allowed on TV — they probably didn’t even like “Brokeback Mountain”), and for Jon Stewart. Hopefully they won’t script all the humor out of him like they did to Chris Rock (they won’t cause he is white and Jewish). As far as the actual awards go, however, we’ll probably care a lot more about the presenters than the winners and losers, especially since a huge chunk of exceptionally beautiful people were mysteriously omitted from the nominees. Of course, I’ll be rooting for Jake Gyllenhaal, Keira Knightley, and Heath Ledger, but if Judi Dench has to hobble on stage for an acceptance speech, I’m investing in a TiVo.