The election in Iraq is over, and by now most Stanford students have heard about the unexpectedly high voter turnout and seen the photos of Iraqis proudly showing their ink-stained fingers. But might domestic reactions to the election fall in line with personal views on the wisdom of U.S. policy in Iraq?

Not likely, says Political Science Prof. Larry Diamond.

“I don’t care whether you were for the war or against the war, whether you thought it was a good idea to hold elections or whether you didn’t, you just can’t be ambivalent about what happened Sunday.”

Diamond, also a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, spoke about the election at Tresidder last night. He served as a senior advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq from January to April of last year and has written a book about his experiences that will be released in June.-

The talk was organized by the Society for International Affairs at Stanford.

Official results of voting will not be released for another two weeks, and Diamond speculated that it would be at least two to three days before anyone had “the faintest idea” of the victors. Nonetheless, he said that “no matter what happens,” the election will be regarded as an important historical moment in the histories of Iraq and the Middle East.

Diamond called the images of Iraqis casting ballots for the first time in over fifty years “deeply moving” and a “real beginning” in the struggle for democracy in Iraq, but he also had serious misgivings about the security of the country.

“I believe that the insurgency is going to explode again pretty ferociously, pretty soon,” he said.

In the most emotional section of his talk, Diamond raised his voice and pounded on the podium with his fist as he warned that Iraq would face more prolonged violence unless President George W. Bush gives up on plans for permanent military bases in Iraq.

“This, to my mind, is really, really dumb,” Diamond said about the construction of military bases, which he believes is already in progress.

Sunday’s election will decide the make-up of the 275 member transitional assembly that will be charged with creating a permanent Iraqi constitution. Diamond guessed that that the assembly will meet in Baghdad for the first time by the end of this month.

A few Stanford students with Iraqi parents were eligible to vote. Polling places were set up in five U.S. cities, with Los Angeles being the closest site to Stanford.

Junior Nora Salim and sophomore Omar Shakir both could have voted, but didn’t. They both cited the inconvenience of traveling to Los Angeles two separate weekends — first for registration, then to cast a ballot — as their reason for missing the vote.

But Salim said that her parents, who are originally from Baghdad, but live in Sun Valley, Calif., made the drive to Los Angeles last weekend in order to participate. She said that none of her remaining relatives in Baghdad went to the polls because they felt the threats of violence made voting too dangerous.

But as national media have reported, many Iraqis made it to the polls anyway.

Owing to the apparent success of the election, Diamond predicted that Bush would receive a “significant, temporary boost” in popularity in the United States, and that the president would try to “milk” that success in Thursday’s State of the Union address.

Diamond has been very open with his criticism of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. He is considered an expert on the efforts to create democracy in Iraq.

By the time he got to the podium at Tresidder last night, he had already provided analysis for several media outlets, including the Los Angeles Times.

At one point, Diamond seemed to forget how much time had passed since the election.

“Was it yesterday? I feel like I’ve lived through this a week already,” he said.